Arabica Coffee Prices Supported By Supply Concerns

March arabica coffee (KCH23) this morning is up +0.60 (+0.35%), and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH23) is down -15 (-0.73%).

Coffee Mar '23 (KCH23)
Coffee Mar ’23 (KCH23)

Coffee prices this morning are mixed, with arabica climbing to a 1-month high.  Concerns about smaller arabica supplies are underpinning prices.  Volcafe said because of weak flower blossoms on coffee trees in the Minas Gerais coffee-growing region, it cut its Brazil 2023/24 arabica coffee production estimate to 40.5 mln bags from a July forecast of 49.8 mln bags.  Dollar strength today (DXY00) limited gains in coffee prices.

A bullish factor for coffee prices was the January 16 report from Cecafe that showed Brazil’s 2022 green coffee exports fell -2.7% y/y to 35.6 mln bags, the lowest in 4 years.

A bullish factor for robusta coffee is shrinking supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories today fell to 6,212 lots, the fewest since contract rules changed in 2016.

Robusta also has support after coffee trader Volcafe forecasted that the global 2023/24 robusta coffee market would see a record deficit of 5.6 mln bags as Indonesia, the world’s third-largest robusta producer is expected to see its 2023/24 robusta coffee production fall to 9.1 mln bags, the smallest robusta crop in 10 years due to damage from excessive rainfall across its growing regions.

An easing of dry conditions in Brazil may boost coffee yields and is bearish for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received 72.9 mm of rain last week, or 141% of the historical average.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil’s arabica crop.

Abundant arabica coffee supplies are negative for prices.  ICE arabica coffee inventories have risen steadily since falling to a 23-year low of 382,695 bags on November 3 and posted a 6-3/4 month high of 870,7224 bags last Thursday.  Also, Conab on January 19 forecasted the 2022/23 Brazil arabica crop would rise +14.4% to 37.4 mln bags.

Increased coffee exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported on January 9 that Vietnam’s 2022 coffee exports were seen up +13.8% y/y at 1.8 MMT.

On the bullish side for coffee prices was the January 4 report from the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation that showed Colombia’s 2022 coffee exports fell -8% y/y to 11.1 mln bags.  Colombia is the world’s second-biggest producer of arabica coffee beans.

On the bearish side, U.S. green coffee inventories are plentiful after the Green Coffee Association on January 17 reported that U.S. Dec green coffee inventories rose +9.3% y/y to 6.38 mln bags.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 23, cut its global 2022/23 coffee production estimate by -1.3% to 172.8 mln bags from a June estimate of 175.0 mln bags.  In addition, the USDA cut its 2022/23 global coffee ending stocks estimate by -1.7% to 34.1 mln bags from a June estimate of 34.7 mln bags.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on December 2 that global coffee exports in Oct fell -1.9% y/y to 9.87 mln bags.

In a bullish factor, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) on November 22 cut its Brazil 2022/23 coffee production forecast by -2.6% to 62.6 mln bags from a prior estimate of 64.3 mln bags.  This year was supposed to be the higher-yielding year of Brazil’s biennial coffee crop, but coffee output this year was slashed by drought.

Source: Rich Asplund (Barchart)

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