Coffee production forecasts after 2014 drought in Brazil

An unprecedented drought reduced coffee production last year in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower, and stunted tree branch growth for the upcoming 2015-16 crop.

On Thursday, Wolthers-Douque USA forecast that Brazil will harvest 45.9 million 60-kg bags in 2015-16.

Though this is up from the green coffee importer’s 2014-15 estimate of 44.21 million bags, the market viewed it as bullish as it falls into the lower end of trade house estimates gathered since February, which range from 44 million bags to 49.75 million bags.

Below are estimates for coffee output (in millions of bags):

coffee-output